Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b25…26e4 crypto 516 markets active 5d ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,098 (-22%) realized −$1,098 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%219W / 307L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day126.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$52
14 days−$102
30 days−$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -15.4% -23.4% 38% 29% -13.0%
≤30d 526 -12.2% -20.5% 42% 33% -17.4%
≤90d 526 -12.2% -20.5% 42% 33% -17.4%
all 526 -12.2% -20.5% 42% 33% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 33% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 28% -25.3%
15% -35.1% 23% -32.6%
20% -41.4% 17% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,098
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses219 / 307
Open positions0
Markets (closed)526 / 516
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day126.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 526 Trades
no open positions (142 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$16 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$8 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$22 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$12 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$14 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$29 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $45 −$30 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$17 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $60 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $44 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$6 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $53 +$36 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records