Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b25…3336 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$166 (-16%) realized −$257 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% $0
crypto 36% −$19
other 25% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -22.5% -29.9% 47% 47% -15.2%
≤30d 17 -31.6% -38.1% 41% 41% -48.7%
≤90d 17 -31.6% -38.1% 41% 41% -48.7%
all 17 -31.6% -38.1% 41% 41% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 41% -48.7%
10% -44.0% 35% -53.6%
15% -49.4% 24% -58.1%
20% -54.4% 18% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$32 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$562
Realized−$257
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage18d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 70¢ $182 $247 +$65 (+36%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 70¢ $126 $162 +$36 (+28%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 52¢ $162 $154 −$9 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$45 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$11 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$39 +121%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$5 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$12 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$19 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$31 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $95 −$93 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $165 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 49m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $128 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $65 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $561.77 · official $559.64 (match) · 63 history records