Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b2a…0f79 sports 120 markets active 1d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$250 (-17%) realized −$250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%57W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$193
14 days−$243
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$146
other 10% −$84
crypto 3% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 49% -28.1%
≤30d 120 -7.9% -16.6% 48% 48% -26.3%
≤90d 120 -7.9% -16.6% 48% 48% -26.3%
all 120 -7.9% -16.6% 48% 48% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 48% -26.3%
10% -24.6% 48% -33.4%
15% -31.9% 43% -39.8%
20% -38.6% 34% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses57 / 63
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage20d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$8 +80%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$1 -5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$61 +238%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$12 +122%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$13 +65%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$17 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 +$4 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$17 +109%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$5 -27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$7 +33%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$10 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$6 +30%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $20 +$11 +55%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$11 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$20 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$16 +105%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $10 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 72¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $10 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $14 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $15 3d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 69¢ $10 3d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 53¢ $10 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $20 3d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Monte 63¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $20 3d
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 70¢ $10 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 37¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 51¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $15 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 4d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $20 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 60¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records