Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
8B 0x8b2c…a9f3 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,457 (+4%) realized +$1,457 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%32W / 76L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$492
14 days+$492
30 days+$456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$1,001
other 43% +$273
crypto 6% −$570
finance 3% +$619
weather 1% −$28
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -12.2% -20.6% 58% 25% -5.2%
≤30d 15 -11.9% -20.3% 60% 27% -5.8%
≤90d 68 -17.8% -25.6% 26% 15% -9.4%
all 108 +12.7% +2.0% 30% 20% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 20% -6.2%
10% -7.8% 16% -15.2%
15% -16.7% 14% -23.4%
20% -24.9% 13% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$42 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,457
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses32 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage242d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NATO expand in 2022? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $348 −$28 -8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $352 −$10 -3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,503 +$86 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,011 +$109 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $859 +$51 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,831 −$122 -7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,004 +$146 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,061 +$67 +6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $905 +$155 +17%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,373 +$141 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 06 $220 −$101 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $572 +$65 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $133 +$45 +34%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $170 +$40 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 22 $30 −$3 -12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $31 −$22 -72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 18 $159 −$10 -6%
Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.0B? May 17 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.275B? May 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.5B? May 17 $136 −$2 -2%
Will the Labor Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legisl May 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will Citizens’ Movement (MC) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico leg May 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Me May 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be between 1% and 3%? May 17 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? May 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $0 $0 -5%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 -31%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in May? May 12 $14 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? May 12 $346 −$4 -1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 in May? May 12 $12 $0 -3%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $220 in May? May 12 $12 +$6 +44%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May? May 12 $17 −$3 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $419 +$78 +19%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 09 $107 −$4 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 08 $5,149 +$198 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 07 $490 −$32 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7? May 07 $246 −$21 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6? May 06 $39 −$6 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6? May 06 $0 $0 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 06 $12 $0 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 05 $100 +$111 +111%
Will Hibernian FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 29 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or higher on April 24? Apr 24 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 25? Apr 24 $2 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 73¢ $319 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 75¢ $342 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $1,359 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $125 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $348 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $352 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $1,503 17h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $102 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 94¢ $603 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $882 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 94¢ $831 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No $828 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No $1,000 27h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 95¢ $256 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 90¢ $1,011 41h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $1,004 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $1,128 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $1,061 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $34 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $871 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $485 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $735 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $88 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,029 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-1 BUY 15¢ $0 13d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $413 17d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $136 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 613 history records