Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b2f…08c7 crypto 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$790 (-2%) realized −$790 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%240W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$352
14 days−$574
30 days−$574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$972
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -1.8% -11.1% 81% 13% -15.5%
≤30d 72 -1.2% -10.6% 78% 7% -13.5%
≤90d 266 -1.9% -11.3% 90% 5% -11.9%
all 266 -1.9% -11.3% 90% 5% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -11.9%
10% -19.7% 1% -20.4%
15% -27.5% 1% -28.1%
20% -34.6% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$73 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$790
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses240 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage85d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $136 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $177 −$77 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $295 −$293 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $97 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $197 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $192 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $199 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $298 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $199 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $93 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $289 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $328 −$128 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $149 −$49 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $199 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET Jun 09 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $189 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $417 −$217 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $189 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 09 $185 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $110 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 09 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $184 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $199 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $195 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $187 +$13 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $89 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $91 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $91 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $92 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $85 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $90 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $99 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $99 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $96 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $95 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $198 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $198 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $197 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $198 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $68 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $95 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $99 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $85 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 629 history records