Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b32…8052 sports 409 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$457 (+1%) realized +$1,283 · open −$826
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%144W / 256L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,077
7 days+$617
14 days+$484
30 days−$1,066
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$827
other 41% −$89
crypto 2% +$408
world 1% −$299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -28.2% -35.0% 33% 25% -3.2%
≤30d 111 -6.1% -15.0% 35% 30% -15.4%
≤90d 319 +11.6% +1.0% 34% 31% -11.9%
all 400 +7.4% -2.9% 36% 34% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 34% -10.2%
10% -12.2% 33% -18.8%
15% -20.6% 31% -26.6%
20% -28.4% 27% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +25% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$46 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized+$1,283
Unrealized−$826
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses144 / 256
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions5
Markets (closed)400 / 409
History coverage148d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 22¢ $430 $215 −$215 (-50%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $520 $5 −$515 (-99%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $33 $1 −$32 (-96%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $88 +$105 +119%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $470 +$300 +64%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $439 −$352 -80%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $779 −$327 -42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $306 −$306 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $90 −$53 -59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $660 −$320 -48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $910 −$10 -1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $354 −$249 -70%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $150 +$245 +163%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $532 +$4 +1%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$45 -88%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $8 $0 -2%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $440 +$295 +67%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $235 +$107 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $440 +$540 +123%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $710 +$9 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $520 +$409 +79%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$9 +129%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $451 +$349 +78%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $32 −$2 -5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $32 −$25 -78%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $100 +$100 +100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $100 +$98 +98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $45 −$6 -14%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$2 -66%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico vs. South Afric Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $85 −$2 -3%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $27 −$21 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $113 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $407 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $99 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $88 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 9¢ $88 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $1 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $279 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $221 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $230 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 46¢ $230 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 45¢ $450 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $114 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $8 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $79 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $46 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $164 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $4 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $6 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $22 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $430 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.44 · official $831.86 · 1385 history records