Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8b35…51b3 sports 265 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,490 (-7%) realized −$3,441 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%149W / 114L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$337est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$136
14 days−$161
30 days−$1,155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$3,576
crypto 9% −$953
other 9% +$751
finance 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -9.0% -17.6% 62% 43% -19.1%
≤30d 112 -5.9% -14.9% 59% 50% -15.2%
≤90d 209 -9.4% -18.0% 57% 50% -15.1%
all 263 -9.1% -17.8% 57% 49% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 49% -16.1%
10% -25.6% 40% -24.1%
15% -32.8% 29% -31.5%
20% -39.4% 24% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$134 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$3,441
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses149 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$337
Open positions2
Markets (closed)263 / 265
History coverage105d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 59¢ 55¢ $75 $69 −$6 (-8%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Nikola Bartunkova 46¢ 16¢ $67 $24 −$43 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $19 +$14 +73%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $80 +$7 +9%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $44 +$32 +73%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $51 +$30 +59%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $35 +$56 +158%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $66 −$63 -95%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $57 +$44 +77%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $78 −$78 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $74 +$4 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $100 +$14 +14%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $150 +$9 +6%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $124 +$28 +23%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $115 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $70 −$69 -99%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $37 −$37 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$12 +112%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 03 $474 −$265 -56%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $178 −$156 -88%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Perez/Schuurs vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 03 $96 +$30 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $245 +$228 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 03 $167 +$143 +86%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $374 −$154 -41%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 03 $175 −$174 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 03 $51 −$50 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $162 −$148 -92%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Jun 03 $168 +$57 +34%
ITF Wuning: Chenting Zhu vs Reina Goto Jun 03 $131 +$31 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $135 −$5 -4%
ITF Cuiaba: Kaue Noatto vs Luka Ono Jun 03 $146 +$22 +15%
ITF Cuiaba: Ryan Augusto Dos Santos vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 02 $100 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 02 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 02 $119 −$115 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 02 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -96%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 02 $161 −$4 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $442 −$98 -22%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 02 $98 −$66 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 02 $102 +$32 +31%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 02 $152 −$17 -11%
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Jun 02 $69 −$59 -86%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $177 +$19 +11%
Foggia: Laura Mair vs Yiming Dang Jun 02 $94 +$28 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 57¢ $19 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 46¢ $68 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 88¢ $88 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 59¢ $76 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $75 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $80 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $81 2h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 57¢ $44 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 62¢ $51 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $91 3h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima SELL Alex de Minaur 3¢ $3 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 38¢ $35 4h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 62¢ $66 4h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $101 4h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $57 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 21h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 65¢ $78 21h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 95¢ $74 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 22h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $115 22h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 87¢ $100 22h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 100¢ $160 22h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 94¢ $150 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.05 · official $99.31 · 571 history records