Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b35…772d other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103 (-9%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$90
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$36
sports 36% +$25
crypto 9% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -17.4% -25.2% 32% 29% -18.5%
≤30d 32 -11.9% -20.3% 34% 31% -15.2%
≤90d 33 -14.6% -22.7% 33% 30% -19.9%
all 43 -14.5% -22.6% 37% 35% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 35% -18.1%
10% -30.0% 33% -25.9%
15% -36.8% 30% -33.1%
20% -43.0% 23% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$19 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage94d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $22 +$29 +132%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $53 +$29 +56%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $59 −$55 -94%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$70 +687%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $62 −$61 -98%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$51 +67%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$28 -92%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 +$54 +89%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$40 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$11 +11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$20 -56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$95 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 +$19 +148%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $55 −$55 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $1 +$1 +99%
Sabres vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $25 +$7 +30%
Sabres vs. Golden Knights Mar 18 $15 +$17 +112%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Mar 18 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $30 +$11 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 40¢ $9 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 40¢ $13 2h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 19¢ $0 2h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 19¢ $8 2h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 19¢ $2 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $53 17h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $53 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $26 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $81 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $3 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $29 2d
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $76 2d
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 3¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $31 3d
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.03 (match) · 79 history records