Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b36…9f34 sports 1046 markets active 3h ago coverage 1098d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$454 (+5%) realized +$468 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%547W / 491L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$32
14 days−$49
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$528
other 9% −$143
world 8% +$115
crypto 3% −$32
politics 3% −$44
economics 1% −$56
finance 1% +$23
culture 0% −$5
tech 0% +$12
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -8.1% -16.9% 50% 46% -15.0%
≤30d 151 +6.3% -3.8% 54% 52% -10.3%
≤90d 444 +7.8% -2.5% 58% 57% -4.5%
all 1038 +1.2% -8.5% 53% 50% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 50% -5.5%
10% -17.2% 46% -14.6%
15% -25.2% 41% -22.8%
20% -32.6% 31% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1098d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$468
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses547 / 491
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1038 / 1046
History coverage1098d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1038 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jessica Pegula 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Dayana Yastremska 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Yulia Starodubtseva 42¢ 34¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-45%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $15 +$8 +52%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $15 +$11 +74%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cobolli/Shelton vs Pavlasek/Vavassori Jun 16 $10 +$38 +372%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $15 +$7 +45%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 16 $10 −$3 -30%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $15 +$8 +50%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $15 +$12 +77%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alexander Blockx vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 15 $15 −$1 -3%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $15 −$1 -3%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Lehecka/Moutet vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $15 +$5 +32%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $10 +$14 +133%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $15 +$5 +35%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $10 +$9 +86%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $10 +$6 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $10 +$6 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $10 +$18 +172%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $8 −$3 -38%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 61¢ $10 3h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 65¢ $10 3h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 49¢ $10 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 66¢ $10 3h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cobolli/Shelton vs Pavlasek/Vavassori BUY Cobolli/Shelton 21¢ $10 19h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 58¢ $10 19h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 38¢ $10 27h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 68¢ $10 27h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 42¢ $10 27h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 53¢ $10 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 47h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 32¢ $5 3d
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 29¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 57¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 71¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $10 3d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 56¢ $15 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Jesper de Jong 64¢ $15 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 63¢ $15 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 61¢ $15 3d
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 53¢ $15 3d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 57¢ $15 3d
HSBC Championships: Alexander Blockx vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 51¢ $15 3d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 66¢ $15 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 46¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $15 3d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 65¢ $15 3d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 68¢ $15 3d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 49¢ $15 5d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 55¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.34 · official $66.34 (match) · 2346 history records