Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8B 0x8b38…2bbf other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,653 (-27%) realized −$3,686 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%24W / 22L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$188
7 days−$2,216
14 days−$2,476
30 days−$2,476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$1,964
sports 26% −$1,474
crypto 1% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 42% -35.8%
≤30d 36 -23.2% -30.5% 47% 39% -30.5%
≤90d 45 -21.3% -28.8% 53% 36% -34.2%
all 46 -23.0% -30.4% 52% 35% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 35% -34.3%
10% -37.0% 22% -40.6%
15% -43.1% 15% -46.3%
20% -48.7% 15% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$253 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$3,686
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage174d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $49 $82 +$33 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $90 +$81 +90%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $9 −$8 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $81 +$65 +81%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $159 +$197 +124%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $85 −$83 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $64 −$63 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 −$101 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Second half draw? Jun 18 $362 −$360 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Second half draw? Jun 18 $896 −$893 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $820 +$152 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: Second half draw? Jun 17 $461 −$459 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $300 +$2 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $246 +$45 +18%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $158 +$102 +64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Second half draw? Jun 16 $268 +$49 +18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 +$35 +101%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Second half draw? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $75 +$138 +184%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Second half draw? Jun 15 $97 +$26 +27%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $405 −$203 -50%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $504 +$106 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $302 −$300 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $406 +$410 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,103 +$119 +11%
Pharos FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 $0 +3%
Pharos FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Pharos FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +7%
Pharos FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +9%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 30 $1,010 +$253 +25%
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 +$2 +23%
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 24 $1,300 −$1,259 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 21 $10 $0 +2%
Pharos FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Apr 20 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Dec 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $90 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $9 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $81 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $159 26h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $85 27h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $64 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $102 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $55 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $45 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $37 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,006 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Second half draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $362 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Second half draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $896 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $820 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Second half draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $461 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,004 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $300 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $246 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $261 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Second half draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $268 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $158 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Second half draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Second half draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $97 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $75 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.47 · official $82.47 (match) · 82 history records