Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b3b…77ae crypto 46 markets active 6d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$29
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -7.7% -16.5% 44% 16% -12.7%
≤30d 34 -6.2% -15.2% 47% 18% -12.4%
≤90d 46 -5.8% -14.7% 50% 22% -13.8%
all 46 -5.8% -14.7% 50% 22% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 22% -13.8%
10% -22.9% 15% -22.0%
15% -30.4% 9% -29.6%
20% -37.2% 4% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage30d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$13 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 12 $12 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 12 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 12 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 12 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 12 $9 +$4 +42%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records