Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b40…cf5f crypto 720 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (276 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12,816 (+10%) realized +$12,712 · open +$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%402W / 554L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day276.1pace
Fees−$190est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$8,864now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$2,492
crypto 17% +$3,489
other 0% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (276 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 720 -35.1% -41.3% 36% 32% -21.6%
≤30d 956 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 37% -15.9%
≤90d 956 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 37% -15.9%
all 956 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 37% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover276.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 37% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -37.3% 34% -23.9%
15% -43.3% 33% -31.3%
20% -48.9% 30% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$49 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$8,864
Realized+$12,712
Unrealized+$104
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses402 / 554
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions7
Markets (closed)956 / 720
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$187
Trades / day276.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 956 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 95¢ $3,328 $3,328 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Under 93¢ 94¢ $2,790 $2,805 +$15 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $2,350 $2,362 +$12 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 59¢ 98¢ $103 $172 +$69 (+66%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Under 85¢ 86¢ $116 $118 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $48 $55 +$7 (+15%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $65 −$67 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$6 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$12 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$18 -134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $194 −$185 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$14 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,862 −$1,862 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$6 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $88 −$103 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$142 -118%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry Jun 17 $248 −$188 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $239 −$239 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $775 −$775 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$71 -145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$15 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $164 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $149 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $77 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $27 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $18 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $62 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $62 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $62 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $62 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $53 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $17 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $44 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $49 8m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $238 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $36 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,864.08 · official $8,859.44 (match) · 3500 history records