Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b41…de3e crypto 936 markets active 19h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (249 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$222 (-8%) realized −$222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate48%447W / 489L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day249.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$54
14 days−$119
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (249 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 366 -4.3% -13.4% 49% 41% -14.3%
≤30d 936 -1.9% -11.2% 48% 35% -13.4%
≤90d 936 -1.9% -11.2% 48% 35% -13.4%
all 936 -1.9% -11.2% 48% 35% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover249.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 35% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 24% -21.7%
15% -27.5% 15% -29.2%
20% -34.6% 8% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses447 / 489
Open positions0
Markets (closed)936 / 936
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day249.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 936 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records