Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b41…b25d other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%34W / 2L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$1
other 30% +$5
tech 7% +$2
world 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 7 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 7 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 36 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.24 per $1 lost it wins $5.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses34 / 2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)36 / 45
History coverage605d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another US bank failure by March 31? Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $6B one day after launch? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.1% in March? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Jun 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Mar 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Mar 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Mar 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on wee Mar 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30 Mar 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Mar 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January Mar 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026 Mar 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Mar 27 $20 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jan 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jan 28 $20 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jan 28 $26 +$1 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 28 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Jan 28 $60 +$1 +2%
Xi Jinping out before October? Nov 24 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? Nov 24 $113 +$2 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Sep 16 $65 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Jan 10-17? Sep 16 $83 $0 +0%
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? Jan 16 $5 $0 +2%
Monkeypox lab leak confirmed by US in 2024? Jan 16 $5 $0 +2%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024? Jan 16 $5 $0 +3%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024? Jan 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Jan 16 $62 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $466 $0 -0%
Will Qualcomm acquire Intel? Nov 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mira Murati join Anthropic? Nov 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 29 $365 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $29 90d
Will Solana reach $150 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 90d
Will annual inflation increase by 2.1% in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 90d
Another US bank failure by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $10 90d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 90d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 90d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 90d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 90d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $10 90d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $10 90d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $8 148d
USD.AI FDV above $6B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $20 148d
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 BUY Yes 99¢ $20 148d
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January BUY No 100¢ $20 148d
Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30 BUY No 100¢ $20 148d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on wee BUY No 100¢ $20 148d
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 148d
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 148d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $20 148d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $20 148d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 98¢ $26 213d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 BUY No 100¢ $20 213d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY No 99¢ $20 213d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $20 213d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 213d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.90 · official $189.90 (match) · 177 history records