Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b42…ecdf crypto 414 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$143 (-9%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%258W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$177
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -14.3% -22.5% 59% 59% -28.7%
≤30d 42 -17.0% -24.9% 55% 48% -26.3%
≤90d 414 -13.2% -21.5% 62% 42% -19.3%
all 414 -13.2% -21.5% 62% 42% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 42% -19.3%
10% -29.0% 30% -27.0%
15% -35.9% 21% -34.1%
20% -42.2% 14% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses258 / 156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)414 / 414
History coverage79d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 414 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 26 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 26 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 26 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 26 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 26 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 26 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 22 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 22 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 22 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 17 $1 $0 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 10h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 927 history records