Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b44…b30a sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-11%) realized −$241 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$513
7 days−$484
14 days−$484
30 days−$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$437
other 7% −$43
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -28.5% -35.3% 31% 31% -30.6%
≤30d 58 -24.4% -31.6% 34% 34% -30.6%
≤90d 58 -24.4% -31.6% 34% 34% -30.6%
all 58 -24.4% -31.6% 34% 34% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 34% -30.6%
10% -38.1% 34% -37.3%
15% -44.1% 34% -43.3%
20% -49.6% 33% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$38 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 38
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage26d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $80 −$79 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 +$41 +80%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $57 +$87 +152%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$56 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$42 +83%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$134 +262%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $105 +$116 +110%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $48 −$48 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$42 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $53 +$47 +90%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $50 −$46 -92%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$79 +156%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $24 +$36 +146%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
CD Palestino vs. Audax CS Italiano: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $15 −$15 -99%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $10 +$5 +50%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $16 −$16 -98%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 01 $5 +$5 +105%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 +$6 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $49 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $80 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $51 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $51 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $57 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $49 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $44 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $49 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $51 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $47 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $51 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $57 28h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $51 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $51 32h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $139 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 34h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 34h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $62 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records