Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8b45…077e sports 625 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$493 (+1%) realized +$472 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%277W / 311L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$285est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days+$550
14 days+$2,021
30 days+$1,605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$2,050
other 18% −$853
crypto 3% −$122
finance 3% +$128
world 1% −$22
politics 1% +$56
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -2.9% -12.1% 41% 38% -3.1%
≤30d 182 +6.3% -3.9% 48% 43% -2.0%
≤90d 423 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 46% -1.4%
all 588 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 43% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 43% -6.2%
10% -19.7% 41% -15.2%
15% -27.4% 36% -23.4%
20% -34.5% 26% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$23 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$472
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses277 / 311
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$285
Open positions12
Markets (closed)588 / 625
History coverage233d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 588 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 52¢ 68¢ $72 $94 +$22 (+30%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 59¢ 57¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $19 $21 +$3 (+15%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 32¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 19 $51 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $75 −$15 -21%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $9 +$4 +42%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $10 +$6 +56%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -81%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $152 +$84 +56%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will France win on 20 Jun 16 $51 +$949 +1845%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $393 −$15 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $283 +$69 +24%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $415 −$59 -14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $633 −$471 -74%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $303 −$10 -4%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $243 +$82 +34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $202 −$7 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $51 +$84 +164%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $81 +$62 +76%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $151 −$70 -47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$9 -56%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$14 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $502 +$85 +17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$7 +66%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $6 −$4 -63%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $47 −$10 -22%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? SELL Yes 54¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 67¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 29¢ $24 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 60¢ $51 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 7h
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $51 10h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 10h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 10h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $20 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $51 15h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 15h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 15h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Wi BUY 3¢ $26 15h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 60¢ $15 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 39h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 20 BUY 1¢ $10 42h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi SELL 0¢ $0 42h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 5¢ $72 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 46h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06- BUY 5¢ $21 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 6¢ $51 47h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 95¢ $16 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.59 · official $614.59 · 1658 history records