Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b4b…1169 crypto 227 markets active 2h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate76%172W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$126
14 days−$93
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% −$58
crypto 43% +$55
sports 2% −$7
economics 0% −$6
other 0% −$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -13.5% -21.8% 60% 0% -20.2%
≤30d 55 -0.7% -10.2% 93% 2% -10.3%
≤90d 118 -0.1% -9.6% 93% 1% -9.7%
all 226 -1.4% -10.8% 76% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses172 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)226 / 227
History coverage585d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? No 99¢ 95¢ $120 $115 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 17 $50 −$6 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $80 −$65 -82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $186 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $126 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $115 −$57 -50%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $245 −$6 -3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 10 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 8? Jun 09 $76 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 09 $157 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $230 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $212 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $225 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 5? Jun 06 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $13 +$7 +49%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 06 $168 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $214 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 3? Jun 04 $202 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 1? Jun 02 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $159 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $321 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on May 31? May 31 $187 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 3 May 31 $194 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 30? May 30 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 30 $192 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 29? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $196 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 28? May 28 $195 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 28? May 28 $182 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 27? May 28 $175 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $55 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $134 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $188 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $186 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 26? May 26 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $132 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 25? May 26 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $130 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 24? May 25 $129 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 22? May 23 $127 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 22? May 22 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on May 22? May 22 $126 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL No 88¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL No 88¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL No 88¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $76 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $8 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $25 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 17¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 17¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 19¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 17¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 17¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 17¢ $6 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 17¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $13 35h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $14 35h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $15 35h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $23 35h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $7 35h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $7 35h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $50 35h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $28 35h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $188 47h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $171 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $129 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 56¢ $34 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 60¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 42¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.83 · official $114.34 (match) · 717 history records