Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b4b…e0ab world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$5
other 26% +$1
politics 8% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.9% -10.4% 33% 8% -8.7%
≤90d 12 -0.9% -10.4% 33% 8% -8.7%
all 33 +1.3% -8.4% 39% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 6% -8.8%
10% -17.2% 3% -17.6%
15% -25.2% 3% -25.5%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage386d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 67¢ 68¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $103 −$3 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $6 $0 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $41 +$5 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $88 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $41 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $31 +$3 +8%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $3 $0 +8%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 19 $1 $0 +36%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 18? Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will R win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $27 +$1 +5%
Israel military action against Iran before June? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June? May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $43 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $6 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $40 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.85 · official $43.20 (match) · 111 history records