Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b4b…541b
other · 156 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$56,607 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$204,719 · open +$119,057
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$2,632,084
Realized+$204,719
Unrealized+$119,057
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses99 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$463
Open positions52
Markets (closed)116 / 156
History coverage56d
Avg bet$24,027
Trades / day58.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 52 History 116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50,094
7 days−$48,501
14 days−$44,170
30 days−$44,170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $271,425 $271,562 +$137 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $235,335 $270,704 +$35,369 (+15%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $249,250 $249,125 −$125 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $208,645 $214,495 +$5,850 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $155,028 $171,950 +$16,922 (+11%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $132,349 $138,873 +$6,524 (+5%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $108,096 $121,017 +$12,920 (+12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $108,790 $108,955 +$165 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $104,801 $105,070 +$269 (+0%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $101,531 $104,351 +$2,819 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $94,600 $94,850 +$250 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $90,000 $90,500 +$500 (+1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $83,000 $90,000 +$7,000 (+8%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $74,889 $80,059 +$5,170 (+7%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $78,960 $79,480 +$520 (+1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $49,342 $49,417 +$75 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 88¢ $40,399 $47,334 +$6,934 (+17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $39,800 $39,860 +$60 (+0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $23,806 $25,525 +$1,718 (+7%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $24,895 $25,471 +$576 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 94¢ 100¢ $24,001 $25,362 +$1,361 (+6%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $19,800 $19,910 +$110 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $19,840 $19,890 +$50 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 84¢ $12,832 $19,519 +$6,687 (+52%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 94¢ $18,651 $18,606 −$45 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $820 +$106 +13%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17,930 +$260 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8,300 +$1,700 +20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4,424 +$267 +6%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Shymkent: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Gijs Brouwer Jun 13 $435 −$435 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $670 −$667 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Jun 13 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 13 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Jun 13 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen Jun 13 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 13 $731 −$596 -82%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-25? Jun 13 $1,223 −$1,152 -94%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-25? Jun 13 $4,100 −$4,100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 13 $910 −$910 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 13 $6,400 −$6,400 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,084 −$5,084 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 13 $8,800 −$8,800 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-04-24? Jun 13 $11,564 −$11,564 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 13 $9,010 −$9,010 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,757 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$11 +76%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +8%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $10,665 +$335 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $9,980 +$20 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $202 +$48 +24%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $10,771 +$424 +4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $612 +$28 +5%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $11,238 +$22 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2,503 +$10 +0%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $3,316 +$17 +0%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6,294 +$6 +0%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2,432 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $88,182 +$119 +0%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $468 +$32 +7%
Lyon: Miguel Damas vs Vilius Gaubas Jun 09 $658 +$7 +1%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $480 +$20 +4%
Lyon: Robin Bertrand vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $9,940 +$60 +1%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $5,579 +$420 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $4,801 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $10,004 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $73,944 +$73 +0%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $420 +$4 +1%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4,911 +$5 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% +$15,534
crypto 17% +$140,238
world 10% +$116,104
politics 7% +$13,190
sports 4% −$11,411
economics 1% +$50,120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $30 8m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $4,985 12m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $151 17m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $151 20m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $97 23m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $58 25m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $605 28m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $48 41m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $13 41m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $484 42m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $302 45m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $30 45m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $151 54m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $151 57m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $302 58m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $60 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) BUY Germany 99¢ $88 1h
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) BUY Germany 99¢ $399 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $154 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $115 1h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Germany 99¢ $1,708 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $302 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -31.4% -37.9% 64% 9% -26.8%
≤30d 55 -25.0% -32.1% 71% 7% -16.4%
≤90d 116 +35.9% +22.9% 85% 25% -0.7%
all 116 +35.9% +22.9% 85% 25% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.9% 25% -0.7%
10% +11.2% 16% -10.2%
15% ← realistic here +0.4% 11% -18.9%
20% -9.4% 9% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,632,083.75 · official $2,631,862.02 (match) · 3500 history records