Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b4c…552d
sports · 213 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$20 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$7
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses91 / 120
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)211 / 213
History coverage198d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 2 History 211 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Blockade" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+203%)
Will Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Air Force Academy Address? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+150%)
Will "Comparison" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will "AI" be said 50+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Yes 47¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Istanbul: Katherine Sebov vs Berfu Cengiz Katherine Sebov 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 9? Yes 48¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 37¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? No 26¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 2? Yes 48¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Ashlyn Krueger vs Nikola Bartunkova Ashlyn Krueger 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Transnational" or "Foreign Criminal Organization" during events with Brazilian president? Yes 63¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? No 29¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 2? Yes 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Istanbul: Anastasia Gasanova vs Hanyu Guo Hanyu Guo 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Leolia Jeanjean vs Diane Parry Diane Parry 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 59¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 34¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 43¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bernie say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during Fighting Oligarchy? No 21¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Maya Joint vs Viktorija Golubic Maya Joint 51¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to Score Yes 66¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vance say "Nuclear" during Air Force Academy Address? May 29 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Air Force Acad May 28 $1 +$2 +146%
Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? May 28 $1 +$1 +76%
Will "Blockade" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? May 27 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Bernie say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during Fighting Oligarchy? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Fat shot / Ozempic" during Healthcare Affordability Ev May 19 $1 +$2 +164%
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to Score May 16 $1 −$1 -99%
New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 May 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 May 14 $1 $0 +44%
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? May 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 9? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Maduro" during events with Brazilian president? May 07 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Trump say "Transnational" or "Foreign Criminal Organization" duri May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Maya Joint vs Viktorija Golubic May 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Istanbul: Elena Pridankina vs Sofia Costoulas May 05 $1 $0 +3%
Istanbul: Maria Timofeeva vs Noma Noha Akugue May 05 $1 +$1 +76%
Istanbul: Katherine Sebov vs Berfu Cengiz May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Istanbul: Anastasia Gasanova vs Hanyu Guo May 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Kimberly Birrell vs Yue Yu May 04 $1 +$1 +73%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Alina Korneeva vs Ella Sei May 04 $1 +$1 +89%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Anhelina May 04 $1 +$1 +89%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Ashlyn Krueger vs Nikola B May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Leolia Jeanjean vs Diane P May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk May 02 $1 +$1 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 2? May 02 $1 −$1 -96%
La Bisbal: Tamara Korpatsch vs Marina Bassols Ribera May 02 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 2? May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on May 2? May 02 $1 −$1 -63%
La Bisbal: Daria Kasatkina vs Sara Sorribes Tormo May 02 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 1? May 01 $2 +$2 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 2? May 01 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 1? May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on April 30? Apr 30 $2 +$1 +50%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Apr 30 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 29 Apr 30 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 29? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? Apr 29 $1 +$3 +321%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 28? Apr 29 $1 +$1 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 28? Apr 29 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 27 Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 44% −$8
sports 37% −$3
other 11% −$10
politics 4% −$2
crypto 1% $0
world 1% +$3
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "AI" be said 50+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will "Comparison" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Air Force Acad BUY Yes 40¢ $1 15d
Will Vance say "Nuclear" during Air Force Academy Address? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 15d
Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 16d
Will "Blockade" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 17d
Will Bernie say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during Fighting Oligarchy? BUY No 21¢ $1 17d
Will Trump say "Fat shot / Ozempic" during Healthcare Affordability Ev BUY No 37¢ $1 24d
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $1 26d
New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 26d
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 26d
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 27d
Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet? SELL Yes $0 28d
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 29d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 59¢ $1 29d
Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 29d
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 29d
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? BUY No 22¢ $1 30d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 29¢ $1 33d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 33d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 9? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 34d
Will Trump say "Maduro" during events with Brazilian president? SELL No 97¢ $2 35d
Will Trump say "Transnational" or "Foreign Criminal Organization" duri BUY Yes 63¢ $1 36d
Will Trump say "Maduro" during events with Brazilian president? BUY No 60¢ $1 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Maya Joint vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Maya Joint 51¢ $4 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 15 +4.1% -5.8% 47% 47% -5.7%
≤90d 134 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 40% -23.8%
all 211 -5.8% -14.7% 43% 42% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 42% -16.1%
10% -22.9% 41% -24.1%
15% -30.3% 39% -31.5%
20% -37.2% 33% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.19 · official $7.19 (match) · 414 history records