Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b4e…417c sports 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$130 (-2%) realized −$128 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%78W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$89
14 days−$373
30 days−$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$20
other 9% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.6% -35.4% 36% 36% -24.1%
≤30d 31 -46.0% -51.2% 26% 26% -40.1%
≤90d 66 -32.5% -39.0% 32% 32% -30.7%
all 185 -7.1% -15.9% 42% 42% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 42% -11.8%
10% -24.0% 42% -20.2%
15% -31.3% 41% -27.9%
20% -38.1% 40% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$31 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$128
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses78 / 107
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions6
Markets (closed)185 / 191
History coverage134d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 1WIN 44¢ 43¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $53 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Oxuji Esports 39¢ 40¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Carstensz 37¢ 38¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $54 +$86 +158%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $68 +$66 +97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $61 +$62 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $19 +$23 +119%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $17 +$4 +25%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Game Handicap: MODUS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs 9z (BO5) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playoffs Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Jun 11 $54 −$54 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 11 $55 −$55 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $41 +$59 +145%
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1? Jun 07 $47 +$56 +119%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $32 +$36 +109%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 P Apr 26 $68 +$21 +31%
Genoa CFC vs. Como 1907: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 26 $40 +$40 +101%
Canucks vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Apr 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 12 $36 −$36 -100%
AHL: Belleville Senators vs. Laval Rocket Apr 12 $34 −$34 -100%
AHL: Rochester Americans vs. Providence Bruins Apr 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Utah Apr 12 $45 +$58 +127%
AHL: Utica Comets vs. Syracuse Crunch Apr 12 $40 −$40 -100%
AHL: San Jose Barracuda vs. Henderson Silver Knights Apr 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Apr 11 $36 +$42 +119%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Apr 11 $45 +$56 +124%
Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5 Apr 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 217.5 Apr 11 $41 −$41 -100%
KHL: Avangard Omsk vs. CSKA Moscow Apr 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 Apr 10 $40 −$40 -100%
AHL: Henderson Silver Knights vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds Apr 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Predators vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Apr 10 $30 +$43 +144%
AHL: San Diego Gulls vs. San Jose Barracuda Apr 08 $45 +$53 +119%
AHL: Iowa Wild vs. Rockford IceHogs Apr 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 37¢ $20 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Oxuji Esports 39¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 44¢ $61 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $54 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $54 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $54 15h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $54 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 50¢ $68 26h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 32¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $61 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $24 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $54 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $47 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $21 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $19 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $17 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $47 6d
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY Donstu Esports 45¢ $35 6d
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY Donstu Esports 46¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY Donstu Esports 46¢ $9 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $44 8d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nemiga Gaming 30¢ $3 8d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nemiga Gaming 30¢ $4 8d
Game Handicap: MODUS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) BUY MODUS 39¢ $25 8d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nemiga Gaming 44¢ $47 9d
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In BUY Frites Esports Club 50¢ $39 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY TYLOO 35¢ $20 10d
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $41 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.06 · official $265.06 (match) · 432 history records