Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b4e…edff crypto 8 markets active 4h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$106 (-1%) realized +$16 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,604per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$12,367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$122
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -34.8% -41.0% 29% 29% -33.3%
≤30d 7 -34.8% -41.0% 29% 29% -33.3%
≤90d 7 -34.8% -41.0% 29% 29% -33.3%
all 7 -34.8% -41.0% 29% 29% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.0% 29% -33.3%
10% -46.7% 29% -39.7%
15% -51.8% 29% -45.5%
20% -56.5% 14% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$12,367
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,604
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $12,489 $12,367 −$122 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +208%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $12 4h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $2,582 4h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $15 13h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $3,100 13h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $129 13h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $228 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $346 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $9 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $1,815 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $131 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $134 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $776 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $4 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $987 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $2,282 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $33 5d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $178 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 5d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,366.68 · official $12,366.68 (match) · 39 history records