Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8b51…15d2 sports 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$182 (+9%) realized +$142 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%86W / 86L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$66
14 days−$35
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$217
other 4% +$3
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$5
world 0% +$1
finance 0% −$7
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -24.2% -31.4% 18% 18% -62.8%
≤30d 99 -13.9% -22.1% 33% 33% -4.1%
≤90d 172 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 49% -0.8%
all 172 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 49% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 49% -0.8%
10% -21.0% 36% -10.2%
15% -28.7% 28% -18.9%
20% -35.7% 20% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$142
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses86 / 86
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)172 / 176
History coverage84d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner T1 90¢ 100¢ $171 $190 +$19 (+11%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) T1 86¢ 100¢ $82 $95 +$14 (+17%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 61¢ 100¢ $18 $30 +$12 (+64%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 14¢ 6¢ $6 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 +$3 +223%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 +$4 +270%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$4 +245%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$4 +285%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$4 +257%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$4 +257%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$5 +525%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$4 +354%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +400%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$11 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $1 31m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 75¢ $8 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $164 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 86¢ $60 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 3d
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 7d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 8d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 8d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 8d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 8d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 8d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 8d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 8d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 9d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 24¢ $5 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $1 9d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.24 · official $317.24 (match) · 474 history records