Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8B 0x8b52…70b9 crypto 1370 markets active 0h ago coverage 178d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 177d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,156 (-4%) realized −$4,145 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%706W / 740L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 178d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,314
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -72.9% -75.4% 11% 10% -81.8%
≤30d 337 -44.1% -49.4% 28% 26% -43.9%
≤90d 714 -33.7% -40.0% 33% 31% -38.0%
all 1446 -14.9% -23.0% 49% 41% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 41% -15.9%
10% -30.4% 36% -24.0%
15% -37.1% 29% -31.3%
20% -43.3% 23% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$24 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$4,145
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses706 / 740
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1446 / 1370
History coverage178d ⚠
Avg bet$71
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 46¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$12 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 15? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$131 -1309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 5PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 3PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 18? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9PM ET Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 1AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12PM ET Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 15? Jun 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$7 -734%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $62 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $130 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $112 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.23 · official $8.80 (match) · 3500 history records