Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b54…920f other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$254 (+6%) realized +$313 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%41W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$296
7 days+$214
14 days+$214
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$73
sports 36% +$196
crypto 6% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +14.6% +3.7% 53% 31% -4.6%
≤30d 78 +14.4% +3.5% 53% 31% -4.6%
≤90d 78 +14.4% +3.5% 53% 31% -4.6%
all 78 +14.4% +3.5% 53% 31% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 31% -4.6%
10% -6.4% 18% -13.8%
15% -15.5% 14% -22.1%
20% -23.8% 14% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$24 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized+$313
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses41 / 37
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)78 / 84
History coverage22d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? No 89¢ 100¢ $323 $363 +$40 (+12%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? No 98¢ 63¢ $48 $31 −$17 (-35%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 93¢ 38¢ $55 $22 −$33 (-59%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? No 85¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 11¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $84 +$57 +68%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $122 +$10 +8%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $674 +$357 +53%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $204 −$5 -2%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $338 +$376 +111%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $402 −$402 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $39 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +18%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +8%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $8 +$68 +870%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $58 +$5 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $4 +$13 +340%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $26 −$15 -59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $35 +$5 +14%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $45 +$5 +11%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 +$9 +165%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$27 +980%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $52 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $18 −$5 -27%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $75 +$9 +12%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $162 +$46 +28%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$12 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 93¢ $12 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 98¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 91¢ $54 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 90¢ $108 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 87¢ $151 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 98¢ $30 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 2¢ $2 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $141 15h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $132 15h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $1,031 15h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 59¢ $19 15h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 15h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 6¢ $2 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $13 15h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 6¢ $2 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $13 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $13 15h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 7¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 65¢ $655 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $46 15h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 8¢ $8 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.60 · official $421.63 (match) · 343 history records