Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8b55…d74b sports 814 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,167 (+4%) realized +$6,502 · open +$665
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%424W / 412L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Fees−$2,286est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,841now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$4,034
other 1% +$17
finance 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -37.3% -43.3% 32% 32% -27.4%
≤30d 510 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 41% -25.5%
≤90d 836 +5.3% -4.7% 51% 50% -9.3%
all 836 +5.3% -4.7% 51% 50% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 50% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 49% -17.9%
15% -22.2% 46% -25.9%
20% -29.8% 40% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +37% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$177 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$2,841
Realized+$6,502
Unrealized+$665
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses424 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,286
Open positions10
Markets (closed)836 / 814
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$206
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 836 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 64¢ 100¢ $640 $1,000 +$360 (+56%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner FURIA 68¢ 100¢ $544 $800 +$256 (+47%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 64¢ $250 $322 +$72 (+29%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Under 43¢ 56¢ $172 $222 +$50 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 31¢ 38¢ $155 $188 +$32 (+21%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 59¢ 36¢ $241 $149 −$92 (-38%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Yes 40¢ 61¢ $80 $122 +$42 (+52%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-52%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $54 $3 −$51 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 260 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 18 $126 −$126 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - LCP R Jun 18 $148 −$148 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 1 Winn Jun 18 $198 −$198 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Map Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5) Jun 18 $144 −$144 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: Maryville University vs Citadel Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo Musetti Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Jun 18 $171 −$171 -100%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5) Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Valorant: Fire Flux Esports vs FUT Academy (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 18 $136 −$136 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs T1 - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Reed Sheppard win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Jordan Ott win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group A Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Jun 18 $162 −$162 -100%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Ranking Matches Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $78 +$122 +156%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $94 +$106 +113%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $178 +$322 +180%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $333 +$181 +54%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $139 +$100 +72%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $384 +$616 +161%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $462 −$462 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $572 −$572 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $540 −$540 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $255 +$245 +96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $91 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $437 +$563 +129%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $497 +$503 +101%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $234 −$230 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 31¢ $70 26m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 31¢ $85 26m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $67 54m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 54m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $37 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $7 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $4 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $45 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $6 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $12 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $254 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 68¢ $544 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 64¢ $640 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $76 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $384 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 45¢ $200 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 46¢ $2 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 47¢ $235 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 45¢ $8 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 45¢ $16 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $29 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $56 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 65¢ $255 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,841.22 · official $2,879.22 · 3500 history records