Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b5a…00f2
other · 81 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,295,297 +69%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$201,855 · open −$13,652
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$316,282
Realized−$201,855
Unrealized−$13,652
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses27 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$340
Open positions9
Markets (closed)86 / 81
History coverage285d
Avg bet$23,063
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 9 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22,048
7 days+$29,976
14 days+$29,976
30 days+$131,390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $170,815 $157,715 −$13,099 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $87,267 $88,875 +$1,608 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $27,253 $26,709 −$544 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $27,000 $26,500 −$500 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12,812 $11,461 −$1,351 (-11%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4,170 $4,432 +$262 (+6%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $550 $580 +$30 (+6%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $62 $9 −$53 (-86%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $4,841 $0 −$4,841 (-100%)
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $511 $0 −$511 (-100%)
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $32,928 $0 −$32,928 (-100%)
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? No 21¢ 0¢ $8,400 $0 −$8,400 (-100%)
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown? No 50¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1,062 $0 −$1,062 (-100%)
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31? No 48¢ 0¢ $7,306 $0 −$7,306 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $48,354 $0 −$48,354 (-100%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $10,404 $0 −$10,404 (-100%)
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $16,444 $0 −$16,444 (-100%)
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? No 67¢ 0¢ $80,400 $0 −$80,400 (-100%)
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9,000 $0 −$9,000 (-100%)
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $42,010 $0 −$42,010 (-100%)
Russian strike on Poland by September 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $861 $0 −$861 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 14 $4,841 −$4,841 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $511 −$511 -100%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Jun 14 $8,400 −$8,400 -100%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a success Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $16,444 −$16,444 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 14 $9,000 −$9,000 -100%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31? Jun 14 $15,254 −$15,254 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 14 $9,504 −$9,504 -100%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Jun 14 $19,359 −$19,359 -100%
America Party wins a federal or gubernatorial election in 2025? Jun 14 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jun 14 $15,000 −$15,000 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? Jun 14 $17,590 −$17,590 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? Jun 14 $5,428 −$5,428 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18,698 +$21,302 +114%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10,033 +$5,967 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $85,462 +$114,538 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50,054 −$49,800 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47,948 +$52,052 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6,193 +$9,807 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8,062 −$7,950 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13,928 +$6,072 +44%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $16,648 +$101,413 +609%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 09 $21,467 +$21,683 +101%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Apr 26 $0 +$1 +809%
Spread: Austin FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $252 +$1,386 +550%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $6,665 +$13,125 +197%
Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5) Apr 25 $318 −$310 -98%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $328 −$322 -98%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 25 $3,299 +$3,207 +97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $2,983 +$2,645 +89%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $61,750 +$33,250 +54%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jan 02 $2 +$5 +285%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? Jan 02 $18,300 +$11,700 +64%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $58,650 −$58,650 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $60,096 +$25,756 +43%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Dec 28 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour? Dec 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $48,354 −$48,354 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour an Dec 25 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $2,508 −$2,508 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $195 −$195 -100%
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 15%? Nov 29 $99 +$103 +104%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $1,062 −$1,062 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $45,600 −$45,600 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $25,668 +$21,001 +82%
Will France win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $14,450 −$14,450 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $8,400 +$6,600 +79%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Nov 06 $1,931 +$6,466 +335%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $4,920 −$4,920 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 80% −$92,616
sports 10% +$96,664
world 6% −$31,091
economics 2% −$41,337
politics 1% −$18,179
tech 1% −$13,401
crypto 0% +$6,466
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $156 14m
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 16m
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 44m
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $808 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,332 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $16,619 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $8,452 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $27,591 2h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $548 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,995 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $9,349 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $34,031 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $34,031 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -44.6% -49.9% 27% 27% -2.0%
≤30d 23 -16.2% -24.2% 30% 30% +21.9%
≤90d 30 +39.4% +26.1% 40% 40% +27.9%
all 86 -15.8% -23.8% 31% 31% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 31% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 31% -27.9%
15% -37.8% 29% -34.9%
20% -43.9% 26% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316,282.14 · official $316,282.34 (match) · 3500 history records