Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:33:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b5b…1dbb other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-41%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-80.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -66.8% -69.9% 0% 0% -47.9%
≤30d 3 -77.8% -80.0% 0% 0% -53.2%
≤90d 3 -77.8% -80.0% 0% 0% -53.2%
all 3 -77.8% -80.0% 0% 0% -53.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.0% 0% -53.2%
10% -81.9% 0% -57.7%
15% -83.6% 0% -61.8%
20% -85.2% 0% -65.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$27 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage16d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $129 −$43 -34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$17 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 25¢ $28 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 42¢ $35 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records