Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b5b…576f sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$426 (+12%) realized +$485 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days+$66
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$474
other 26% −$122
politics 11% +$152
economics 8% +$3
finance 3% −$100
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +116.7% +96.1% 33% 33% +35.0%
≤30d 5 +62.5% +47.0% 40% 40% +0.4%
≤90d 12 +23.5% +11.7% 50% 50% +22.5%
all 21 +15.8% +4.8% 48% 43% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 43% +9.7%
10% -5.3% 43% -0.8%
15% -14.4% 43% -10.4%
20% -22.8% 33% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$56 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$1,004
Realized+$485
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions16
Markets (closed)21 / 37
History coverage240d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $208 $244 +$36 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $111 $112 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $83 $80 −$3 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $65 $54 −$11 (-17%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 67¢ 26¢ $134 $51 −$83 (-62%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$169 +550%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $57 −$56 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $116 +$72 +62%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 21 $533 +$415 +78%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 15 $50 −$47 -95%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 15 $110 −$83 -75%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $232 +$179 +77%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? May 05 $68 +$32 +47%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $216 +$80 +37%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $322 −$90 -28%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Mar 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $279 +$3 +1%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Jan 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase? Jan 19 $17 +$45 +260%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 16 $20 +$12 +60%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 14 $24 +$14 +58%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $43 −$13 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $28 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $49 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $57 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $57 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $48 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 0¢ $37 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 0¢ $1 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 0¢ $0 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 0¢ $0 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 0¢ $0 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 0¢ $0 7d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 7d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 7d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 7d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 7d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 7d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 7d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $44 7d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 7d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,004.45 · official $1,004.45 (match) · 443 history records