Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:53:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b5c…fc49 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,272 (+9%) realized +$2,272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,339per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$532est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,802
7 days+$3,028
14 days+$4,115
30 days+$4,115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$4,115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.8% -12.1% 60% 40% +9.4%
≤30d 10 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 30% +5.0%
≤90d 10 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 30% +5.0%
all 10 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 30% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 30% +5.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 10% -5.1%
15% -30.2% 10% -14.3%
20% -37.0% 10% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$826 vs −$3 · ×289.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×289.87 per $1 lost it wins $289.87
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2,272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$532
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2,339
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 53¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $9,800 +$1,979 +20%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $8 −$8 -95%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $1,300 +$831 +64%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $10 $0 -5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 25 $3,391 +$227 +7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $6 −$3 -49%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5,270 +$716 +14%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $38 −$2 -6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $5,887 +$377 +6%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Chicago Cubs 89¢ $4,435 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $2,387 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $2,617 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $43 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $3 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $1,490 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 44¢ $841 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Chicago Cubs 53¢ $0 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Chicago Cubs 26¢ $724 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Chicago Cubs 26¢ $353 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Chicago Cubs 26¢ $55 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Chicago Cubs 26¢ $161 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Chicago Cubs 26¢ $6 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Chicago Cubs 26¢ $2 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 31¢ $1,582 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 68¢ $3,072 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $483 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $2,260 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $201 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $250 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 71¢ $309 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $4 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $2 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $7 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $3 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $191 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $4 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 68¢ $38 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $24 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $33 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.90 · official $1.90 (match) · 205 history records