Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b5d…582a crypto 62 markets active 4d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-14%) realized −$9 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate78%46W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$10
politics 35% −$1
world 6% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -2.2% -11.5% 85% 27% -11.5%
≤30d 59 -6.8% -15.7% 78% 31% -19.4%
≤90d 59 -6.8% -15.7% 78% 31% -19.4%
all 59 -6.8% -15.7% 78% 31% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 31% -19.4%
10% -23.8% 8% -27.1%
15% -31.1% 2% -34.1%
20% -37.9% 2% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses46 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 83¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.16 · official $1.16 (match) · 161 history records