Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b5d…57d3 weather 438 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,123 (+9%) realized +$2,079 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%163W / 267L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day55.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$613
7 days+$274
14 days+$603
30 days+$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$1,079
sports 2% −$53
other 1% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +12.7% +1.9% 43% 43% -0.1%
≤30d 220 -3.7% -12.9% 39% 38% -6.3%
≤90d 430 -3.8% -13.0% 38% 37% -5.0%
all 430 -3.8% -13.0% 38% 37% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 37% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 36% -14.1%
15% -28.9% 34% -22.4%
20% -35.9% 33% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$42 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized+$2,079
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses163 / 267
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)430 / 438
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$54
Trades / day55.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $81 $92 +$10 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $63 $71 +$8 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Yes 21¢ 92¢ $12 $55 +$42 (+342%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? Yes 27¢ 29¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Yes 37¢ 5¢ $22 $3 −$19 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $98 +$118 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $35 +$65 +189%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $53 +$95 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 +$42 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $95 +$122 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $119 +$109 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $34 +$61 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 19 $92 −$90 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 −$57 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Jun 19 $64 −$62 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $38 −$37 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 19 $110 −$106 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $79 −$77 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $47 +$59 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $52 +$93 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 18 $47 −$47 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 +$8 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $49 −$32 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $81 −$78 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$30 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$74 +164%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $98 +$129 +132%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $70 +$118 +169%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $75 +$15 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$57 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$98 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$9 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $80 −$79 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $54 −$52 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 −$34 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$93 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$66 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$63 +207%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $53 +$46 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 −$40 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 51m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 39¢ $84 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 51¢ $119 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $59 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 37¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.26 · official $311.99 (match) · 3500 history records