Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b62…c3cb crypto 163 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$814 (-18%) realized −$814 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%52W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$74
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$483
weather 14% −$219
world 9% −$287
economics 5% −$215
politics 3% +$383
other 2% −$91
sports 2% +$20
finance 1% −$38
tech 1% −$17
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 65% 46% -10.2%
≤30d 47 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 30% -18.7%
≤90d 148 -25.9% -33.0% 34% 29% -32.2%
all 163 -25.7% -32.8% 32% 28% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 28% -29.4%
10% -39.2% 17% -36.1%
15% -45.1% 12% -42.3%
20% -50.5% 9% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$814
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses52 / 111
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage143d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$9 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$7 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $100 −$38 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$21 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $35 +$4 +12%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $33 −$32 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $90 −$22 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 05 $34 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 03 $23 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 03 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Jun 03 $7 +$1 +9%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 22 $3 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on May 23? May 22 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 23? May 22 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 22 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 22 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 19 $26 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 19 $15 −$4 -28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 16? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 16? May 16 $6 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $19 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $18 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $12 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $19 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $12 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $9 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $8 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 520 history records