Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b63…bdd3 sports 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,668 (-31%) realized −$6,110 · open +$442
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%41W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$399est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$554
14 days−$1,598
30 days−$4,245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$3,754
other 31% −$1,448
world 3% −$319
politics 0% −$88
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -60.7% -64.5% 7% 0% -57.1%
≤30d 101 -39.3% -45.1% 13% 12% -48.5%
≤90d 239 -31.0% -37.6% 17% 16% -40.7%
all 239 -31.0% -37.6% 17% 16% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 16% -40.7%
10% -43.6% 16% -46.3%
15% -49.0% 15% -51.5%
20% -54.0% 14% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$58 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$482
Realized−$6,110
Unrealized+$442
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses41 / 198
Est. fees paid−$399
Open positions3
Markets (closed)239 / 242
History coverage55d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 0¢ 38¢ $0 $304 +$304 (+0%)
Targu Mures: Miguel Tobon vs Martin Krumich Miguel Tobon 0¢ 32¢ $0 $154 +$154 (+0%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 3¢ 2¢ $40 $24 −$16 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios Jun 22 $103 −$5 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $149 −$5 -3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $77 −$74 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $17 −$17 -97%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko Jun 20 $98 −$95 -97%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $51 −$12 -24%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $43 −$42 -97%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 19 $51 −$8 -16%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 19 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$22 -43%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 −$38 -97%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $177 −$130 -74%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $66 −$14 -21%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $21 −$9 -46%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $112 −$110 -98%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 12 $93 −$90 -97%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 12 $243 −$236 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $421 −$411 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $54 −$31 -57%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $33 +$21 +64%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $58 −$57 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $76 −$18 -24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $47 +$30 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -95%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $72 −$60 -83%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $78 −$5 -7%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $100 −$87 -87%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $63 −$14 -22%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $34 −$33 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Marc Polmans Jun 06 $8 −$1 -18%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $67 −$39 -59%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $51 −$34 -66%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $123 −$120 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $30 +$83 +279%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $31 −$30 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $117 −$114 -98%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 03 $169 −$165 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $104 −$99 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $105 −$100 -95%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 03 $184 −$23 -12%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $236 +$937 +398%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 03 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $144 −$130 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $329 40m
Targu Mures: Miguel Tobon vs Martin Krumich BUY Miguel Tobon 20¢ $97 53m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios SELL Marco Cecchinato 9¢ $97 54m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 3¢ $41 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios BUY Marco Cecchinato 9¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $144 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $149 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $77 41h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY Scotland 5¢ $17 46h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko BUY Ziga Sesko 9¢ $39 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito SELL Aoi Ito 12¢ $39 2d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko BUY Ziga Sesko 12¢ $59 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito BUY Aoi Ito 15¢ $51 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 6¢ $43 2d
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) SELL Chicago White Sox 6¢ $43 2d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 10¢ $37 2d
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 6¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $29 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $40 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $44 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 2¢ $10 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $40 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 5¢ $46 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $46 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $53 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 14¢ $53 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 5¢ $52 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 6¢ $66 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $482.05 · official $482.05 (match) · 578 history records