trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 0% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 44% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 44% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 23 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 43% | 0% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 0% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 0% | -33.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $38 | $38 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $39 | $0 | -1% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 02 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 02 | $78 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 31 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 31 | $80 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 30 | $19 | $0 | -2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 29 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 28 | $40 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Jun 27 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | May 16 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Apr 25 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | Apr 25 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio | Apr 23 | $4 | −$1 | -17% |
| No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? | Apr 23 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? | Apr 23 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Apr 23 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Browns draft Abdul Carter? | Apr 21 | $2 | −$1 | -41% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel military action against Iran in March? | Mar 28 | $12 | $0 | -0% |