Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b63…4c87 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1
other 25% +$1
crypto 9% $0
economics 8% $0
culture 8% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 1% −$6
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 +3.4% -6.4% 23% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 15 -3.7% -12.9% 20% 7% -10.0%
all 41 -4.4% -13.5% 32% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 5% -10.0%
10% -21.8% 2% -18.6%
15% -29.3% 2% -26.5%
20% -36.3% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage485d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $19 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $39 +$2 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $1 $0 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $40 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $6 $0 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 27 $1 $0 -12%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 26 $16 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 19 $7 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $7 $0 -1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $29 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 14 $32 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 9–16? May 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 10 $33 +$4 +11%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 08 $33 $0 +0%
Drexel vs. Delaware Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $45 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $20 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $45 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $19 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 71¢ $19 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $31 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 25d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $39 25d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $40 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.90 · official $44.64 (match) · 114 history records