Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b66…fbcb other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate51%27W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
other 21% $0
politics 16% $0
crypto 8% −$4
weather 4% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% +$1
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -5.9% -14.9% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -5.9% -14.9% 38% 0% -9.4%
all 53 -3.2% -12.4% 51% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 2% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses27 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage465d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $33 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $89 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $1 −$1 -49%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $20 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $44 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Jul 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 27 $5 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 27 $4 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 26 $8 $0 +1%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 26 $9 $0 +0%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday? Jul 26 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on July 25? Jul 25 $6 −$5 -85%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $13 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 23 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 26 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $4 $0 +13%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 19 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $4 11h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $33 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $33 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $19 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $13 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $16 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $48 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $33 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $28 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $3 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $2 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $39 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $2 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $42 24d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $20 24d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $20 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $31 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $44 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $16 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $16 25d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 325d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 325d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 325d
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? SELL No 97¢ $9 325d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.56 · official $39.56 (match) · 162 history records