Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8B 0x8b67…5347 sports 18 markets active 1d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$24 (+12%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +19.3% +7.9% 50% 50% +0.2%
≤30d 18 +19.3% +7.9% 50% 50% +0.2%
≤90d 18 +19.3% +7.9% 50% 50% +0.2%
all 18 +19.3% +7.9% 50% 50% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 50% +0.2%
10% -2.4% 50% -9.4%
15% -11.9% 50% -18.1%
20% -20.5% 50% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $23 +$12 +52%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $10 −$3 -28%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $15 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$20 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $20 +$25 +121%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $11 +$9 +86%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $8 +$9 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $8 +$6 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $9 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $13 27h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 37¢ $7 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 50¢ $10 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 27h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 27h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $15 45h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 56¢ $10 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $15 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $5 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $25 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $11 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $8 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $8 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 50¢ $8 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records