Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8b68…8a7f politics 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$127 (-0%) realized −$129 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%11W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,370per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,074now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$21
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$78
other 41% −$75
economics 5% −$11
sports 3% −$20
culture 2% −$4
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$25
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 89 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 9% -9.6%
all 92 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 10% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 10% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 9% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,675) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$1,074
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses11 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage91d
Avg bet$1,370
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $711 $713 +$2 (+0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $362 $361 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 26 $428 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $433 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $3,091 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,927 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $2,951 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $310 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,931 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,496 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $2,479 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,832 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,476 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 26 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $2,855 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,398 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $2,638 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,669 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $2,946 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,288 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $827 −$1 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 20 $836 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $2,751 −$4 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 19 $63 +$31 +50%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $21 +$10 +50%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $2,533 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $2,886 −$3 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,369 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $3,140 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 15 $2,768 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $2,611 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $362 1h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $428 1h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $428 4h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $433 18h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $433 20h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $520 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $521 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $563 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $563 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $314 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $314 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $309 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $310 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $711 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,159 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,161 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,455 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,458 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,032 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,034 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,199 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,447 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,449 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 18d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 19d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,016 19d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,018 19d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 20d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,038 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,074.43 · official $1,074.43 (match) · 278 history records