Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b6e…07d7 crypto 1452 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$133 (+1%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%780W / 675L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day41.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days+$71
14 days+$99
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 378 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 55% -7.3%
≤30d 1152 -1.0% -10.4% 54% 54% -9.4%
≤90d 1455 -0.6% -10.0% 54% 54% -9.5%
all 1455 -0.6% -10.0% 54% 54% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 54% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 54% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 54% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 53% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses780 / 675
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1455 / 1452
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1455 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +96%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$6 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$6 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +82%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +81%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$7 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $9 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $9 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.58 · official $12.00 (match) · 3500 history records