Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8B 0x8b6f…aab3 sports 424 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$915 (+4%) realized +$937 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%260W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$259est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$385
14 days+$681
30 days+$669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$654
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +6.9% -3.3% 64% 53% -4.1%
≤30d 418 +5.1% -4.9% 62% 51% -6.7%
≤90d 418 +5.1% -4.9% 62% 51% -6.7%
all 418 +5.1% -4.9% 62% 51% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 51% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 41% -15.7%
15% -22.3% 32% -23.8%
20% -30.0% 21% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$25 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$937
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses260 / 158
Est. fees paid−$259
Open positions5
Markets (closed)418 / 424
History coverage28d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 418 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Hubert Hurkacz 78¢ 73¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-6%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 71¢ 100¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+41%)
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Dominion Nation 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Maria 72¢ 70¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Daniel Altmaier 22¢ 27¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Flame Team 25¢ 7¢ $22 $6 −$16 (-72%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 29¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $26 −$1 -5%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $25 +$15 +60%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $40 −$35 -87%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $22 +$8 +34%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $114 −$25 -22%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $44 +$10 +23%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $25 +$22 +86%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $26 +$1 +3%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $15 +$6 +42%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $16 +$13 +83%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$18 +60%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $17 +$14 +83%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 +$8 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 +$23 +86%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 15 $78 +$25 +32%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $77 −$16 -21%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$30 +120%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $71 −$5 -6%
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $22 +$18 +83%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $50 +$8 +16%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $45 +$5 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $50 +$11 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $151 +$52 +34%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $66 +$9 +14%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $79 −$14 -17%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $75 +$29 +39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $55 +$3 +6%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $57 −$1 -1%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $18 +$11 +61%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $302 +$80 +27%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $22 +$10 +46%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $101 −$31 -31%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $112 +$22 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $33 +$27 +81%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $106 −$51 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 22¢ $15 27m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 25¢ $22 44m
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 78¢ $45 1h
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) BUY Maria 72¢ $25 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 44¢ $11 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 89¢ $100 2h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 48¢ $15 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 29¢ $8 4h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 51¢ $15 4h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 51¢ $1 4h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 71¢ $25 5h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 51¢ $9 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1 18h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 18¢ $3 19h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 55¢ $11 19h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 55¢ $11 19h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 84¢ $4 21h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 69¢ $35 22h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 74¢ $22 22h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou SELL Spirit Academy 40¢ $27 23h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 12¢ $4 23h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 64¢ $22 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $67 23h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 53¢ $25 24h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $48 24h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 49¢ $25 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $10 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 12¢ $3 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 56¢ $30 25h
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 54¢ $16 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.12 · official $149.31 · 1112 history records