Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b6f…39a7 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+11%) realized +$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$20
other 35% +$15
sports 11% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.4% -4.7% 50% 50% -11.7%
≤30d 10 +5.4% -4.7% 50% 50% -11.7%
≤90d 10 +5.4% -4.7% 50% 50% -11.7%
all 10 +5.4% -4.7% 50% 50% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 50% -11.7%
10% -13.8% 40% -20.2%
15% -22.1% 30% -27.9%
20% -29.8% 30% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 82¢ 92¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$15 -48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $16 +$12 +76%
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $4 +$3 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$3 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.90 · official $7.90 (match) · 25 history records