Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b6f…b9be
weather · 17 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$49
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)6 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 11 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$31 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $126 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $288 −$21 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? SELL Yes 86¢ $51 2m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 16m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 25¢ $10 23m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes $0 32m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes $3 37m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 33% -6.9%
≤30d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 33% -6.9%
≤90d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 33% -6.9%
all 6 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 33% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 33% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 17% -15.8%
15% -23.1% 17% -24.0%
20% -30.6% 17% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.85 · official $50.61 · 55 history records