Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b72…3098 world 87 markets active 21h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$496 (+4%) realized +$413 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%51W / 29L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days−$111
14 days+$395
30 days+$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$615
finance 17% −$274
politics 5% +$44
other 4% +$142
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.1% -6.7% 55% 55% -16.2%
≤30d 23 +20.3% +8.9% 70% 65% +2.1%
≤90d 46 +8.6% -1.7% 63% 54% -5.4%
all 80 +6.3% -3.8% 64% 52% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 52% -5.8%
10% -13.0% 32% -14.8%
15% -21.4% 22% -23.0%
20% -29.1% 15% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$62 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$775
Realized+$413
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses51 / 29
Open positions7
Markets (closed)80 / 87
History coverage172d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 97¢ $318 $389 +$71 (+22%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 74¢ 78¢ $119 $126 +$7 (+6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $75 $81 +$7 (+9%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $63 −$6 -9%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $212 +$76 +36%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $61 +$36 +59%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $212 +$23 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $245 −$205 -84%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $388 −$107 -28%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $43 −$21 -49%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $128 +$21 +17%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 19 $21 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $100 +$66 +66%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $187 +$16 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $150 +$40 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $135 +$115 +85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $265 +$220 +83%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $20 +$14 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$38 +160%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $156 +$62 +40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $15 +$3 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $90 −$63 -70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 27 $191 +$21 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $80 −$76 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $46 −$11 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $85 −$64 -76%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 21 $166 +$30 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 15 $120 +$47 +39%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $209 +$209 +100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $82 +$69 +83%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $16 −$2 -11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $130 −$59 -46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $376 −$374 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 29 $208 +$36 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 25 $292 +$27 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 25 $160 +$10 +6%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $100 +$83 +83%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $100 +$54 +54%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $93 +$108 +116%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $115 −$100 -87%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $367 +$29 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $36 +$6 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 31 $100 +$16 +16%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Mar 30 $62 −$24 -38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 29 $114 −$73 -64%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 21 $34 +$10 +29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 21 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 21 $760 +$94 +12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $14 −$4 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 73¢ $101 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $57 25h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY Yes $5 47h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $41 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $102 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $169 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $23 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $6 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $34 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $60 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $61 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $91 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $96 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $161 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $149 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 4d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 37¢ $21 4d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 18¢ $19 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $172 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $185 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $10 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $16 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $774.67 · official $774.67 (match) · 605 history records