Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b72…6dbe sports 563 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28,465 (+27%) realized +$30,479 · open −$2,014
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%199W / 523L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day34.4pace
Fees−$470est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5,381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$3,414
sports 36% −$2,242
other 10% −$1,515
crypto 7% +$1,447
politics 4% +$2,347
finance 1% −$673
economics 1% −$5
tech 0% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 -53.3% -57.8% 6% 6% -78.7%
≤30d 280 -37.3% -43.3% 16% 13% -10.9%
≤90d 722 -17.4% -25.3% 28% 21% -8.7%
all 722 -17.4% -25.3% 28% 21% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 21% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 20% -17.5%
15% -39.0% 18% -25.4%
20% -45.0% 15% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$45 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$5,381
Realized+$30,479
Unrealized−$2,014
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses199 / 523
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$470
Open positions30
Markets (closed)722 / 563
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$184
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 722 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 81¢ $1,000 $1,614 +$614 (+61%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $825 $1,008 +$183 (+22%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 68¢ 79¢ $596 $694 +$98 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 67¢ 86¢ $355 $459 +$103 (+29%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 35¢ 38¢ $360 $386 +$26 (+7%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 19¢ $1,000 $386 −$614 (-61%)
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 18¢ 11¢ $300 $184 −$116 (-39%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 40¢ 40¢ $121 $119 −$2 (-1%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 44¢ 14¢ $345 $114 −$231 (-67%)
No one announced as next James Bond? No 9¢ 6¢ $151 $98 −$53 (-35%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 41¢ 16¢ $205 $82 −$122 (-60%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $85 $70 −$15 (-17%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $55 $39 −$16 (-29%)
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-20%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $120 $15 −$105 (-88%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 15¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-50%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-34%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 37¢ 2¢ $158 $11 −$147 (-93%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $31 $4 −$27 (-86%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $276 $4 −$271 (-98%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $288 $3 −$285 (-99%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $56 $2 −$54 (-96%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $92 $1 −$91 (-99%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 442 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during t Jun 28 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say “Secretary of War” this week? (November 10 - 16) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BNK FEARX win the LCK Cup 2026? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jun 28 $18 −$21 -120%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)? Jun 28 $25 −$34 -139%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Team Liquid (BO1) Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Leavitt say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the next Whi Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Jun 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 30+ times in Rome, GA on Februa Jun 28 $7 −$7 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $15 −$17 -113%
LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 28 $4 +$114 +2574%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Trump say "Middle East" during Monday press conference? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Tax" or "Tariff" 10+ times during the McDonald's Summi Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the private di Jun 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Rwanda and Congo even Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Marc Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: FRK vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 28 $24 −$8 -35%
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color? Jun 28 $15 −$29 -186%
Will Trump say "US Steel" during events with Japanese PM? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? Jun 28 $8 +$23 +271%
Will ManifestingVictory win the Genesis Cup? Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump say "Moon" during Saudi PM events on November 18? Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump say "Mental Institution" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Jun 28 $39 −$63 -161%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Monday press c Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Jun 28 $126 −$126 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $30 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $21 58m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $35 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $118 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $54 1h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY No 10¢ $1 1h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY No 10¢ $55 2h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY No 9¢ $10 2h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY No 9¢ $76 2h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY No 8¢ $0 2h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY No 10¢ $14 2h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY No 10¢ $1 2h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY No 10¢ $0 2h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? SELL No 82¢ $144 6h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 68¢ $120 6h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? SELL No 79¢ $155 6h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? SELL No 79¢ $241 6h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 64¢ $62 6h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 74¢ $252 7h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 78¢ $53 7h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 7h
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc BUY Yes 12¢ $53 43h
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc BUY Yes 12¢ $37 43h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $67 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $355 3d
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY Yes 61¢ $38 3d
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju SELL No 96¢ $96 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $61 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,381.18 · official $5,381.19 (match) · 3500 history records