Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b76…c036 sports 606 markets active 3d ago coverage 47d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6,919 (+51%) realized +$6,919 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%232W / 374L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day61.6pace
Fees−$422est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$377
14 days+$5,908
30 days+$5,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$5,137
other 8% −$43
world 0% +$19
weather 0% +$19
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -7.0% -15.9% 37% 33% +5.1%
≤30d 473 +6.1% -4.0% 37% 35% +13.3%
≤90d 606 +12.8% +2.1% 38% 36% +11.4%
all 606 +12.8% +2.1% 38% 36% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 36% +11.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 34% +0.7%
15% -16.6% 32% -9.0%
20% -24.8% 28% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$19 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,919
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses232 / 374
Est. fees paid−$422
Open positions0
Markets (closed)606 / 606
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day61.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 606 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $160 −$160 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $56 +$95 +172%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $59 +$89 +151%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $95 +$192 +203%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $44 +$5 +12%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $28 +$1 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $88 −$88 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $114 −$114 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $110 +$48 +43%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $204 +$1,020 +500%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $96 −$96 -100%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $72 −$72 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Virtanen vs Majchrzak Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 3 Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
ITF kiseljak: Josip Simundza vs Yannick Baluska Jun 10 $108 +$352 +326%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $172 −$172 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $110 −$110 -100%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $28 +$23 +82%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $58 +$94 +162%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $6 +$2 +35%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 08 $118 −$118 -100%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $60 +$90 +150%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Ruslan Tiukaev vs Lorenzo Bocchi Jun 07 $60 +$160 +267%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $114 +$159 +140%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $57 +$116 +205%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $22 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 162.5 Jun 06 $4 +$18 +512%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 +$3,031 +6061%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $58 +$84 +146%
Libema Open, Qualification: Britt Du Pree vs Joanna Garland Jun 06 $148 +$390 +264%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 06 $96 +$162 +169%
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $41 +$50 +121%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $15 +$1 +7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $142 +$259 +183%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $66 +$132 +200%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 05 $24 +$36 +150%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 05 $116 +$347 +300%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau $30 2d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 10¢ $60 2d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 10¢ $60 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit $47 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit $30 2d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 NORD $48 3d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 NORD 15¢ $60 3d
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open BUY Level UP 27¢ $34 3d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 67¢ $151 3d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 22¢ $28 3d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 28¢ $28 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 66¢ $53 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 66¢ $50 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 66¢ $45 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 25¢ $31 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 28¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Ding Cuts $16 3d
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Uisung Park 11¢ $28 3d
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Uisung Park 11¢ $32 3d
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Uisung Park 11¢ $6 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 37¢ $41 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 37¢ $3 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 37¢ $41 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 37¢ $41 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 37¢ $7 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 37¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records