Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8B 0x8b78…c095 crypto 985 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,825 (-20%) realized −$2,821 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate56%605W / 474L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day92.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$543
7 days−$607
14 days−$683
30 days−$1,313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$654
other 2% −$57
sports 1% −$96
world 0% −$5
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 278 -42.1% -47.6% 35% 24% -45.3%
≤30d 1069 -25.6% -32.7% 56% 20% -17.9%
≤90d 1079 -25.2% -32.3% 56% 20% -17.4%
all 1079 -25.2% -32.3% 56% 20% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.3% 20% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -38.8% 14% -25.3%
15% -44.7% 11% -32.5%
20% -50.1% 10% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2,821
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses605 / 474
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1079 / 985
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day92.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1079 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 341 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$20 -1028%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $47 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $27 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.15 · official $1.15 (match) · 3500 history records