Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b79…254d
sports · 9 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$4 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 2 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Over 34¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Over 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$3 +122%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +133%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% −$4
other 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $2 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 33¢ $2 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $2 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 43% -40.5%
≤30d 7 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 43% -40.5%
≤90d 7 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 43% -40.5%
all 7 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 43% -40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 43% -40.5%
10% -27.0% 43% -46.2%
15% -34.0% 43% -51.4%
20% -40.5% 43% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.90 · official $2.90 (match) · 20 history records