Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:30:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8B 0x8b7a…9e24 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,787 (+34%) realized +$2,787 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$917per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$190est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,731
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.3% -6.6% 78% 67% +20.4%
≤30d 9 +3.3% -6.6% 78% 67% +20.4%
≤90d 9 +3.3% -6.6% 78% 67% +20.4%
all 9 +3.3% -6.6% 78% 67% +20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 67% +20.4%
10% -15.5% 56% +8.9%
15% ← realistic here -23.7% 11% -1.6%
20% -31.2% 11% -11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$429 vs −$136 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.02 per $1 lost it wins $11.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,787
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$917
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,500 +$1,554 +104%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $770 +$230 +30%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $628 +$1 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $199 +$53 +27%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,395 +$601 +25%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $236 −$236 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,113 +$174 +16%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,378 +$392 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $628 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 11¢ $226 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,274 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $770 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $415 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 33¢ $1,978 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1,753 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $49 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $155 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $198 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $1 25h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns $6 26h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns $35 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns $29 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns $1 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns $5 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns $5 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns $1 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 26¢ $25 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 26¢ $25 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 26¢ $0 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 26¢ $2 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 26¢ $26 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 26¢ $52 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 20¢ $10 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 20¢ $12 27h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 20¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records